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Early 2026 Tax Update: Real Numbers on the OBBBA Refund Boost

We are a few weeks into the grind of the 2026 tax season, and the early numbers from the IRS are telling an interesting story. Across the country, taxpayers are seeing a tangible bump in their refund checks. The average refund currently sits at $2,476, up from $2,169 at this time in 2025. While that 14.2% increase is a welcome improvement—putting about $300 extra in pockets—it is worth noting that it hasn't quite hit the $1,000 increase some policymakers originally forecasted.

However, it is still early days. As we process more complex returns here at Bryant CPA LLC, we expect these averages to shift. The upward trend is largely fueled by the provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and understanding these changes is key to seeing where you stand this year.

The OBBBA Provisions Driving Refunds Up

The OBBBA introduced a mix of specific deductions and broader credit expansions that are lowering taxable income for many of our clients. Here is a look at the specific levers moving the needle:

Vintage calculator and ledger representing tax calculations
  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: The act targets the "half" in your "time-and-a-half" pay mandated by the FLSA. Unmarried filers can deduct up to $12,500 of this premium pay, while married couples filing jointly have a cap of $25,000.

  • The Tips Tax Deduction: For those in service industries (covering nearly 70 designated occupations), you can now deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips annually. Note that married taxpayers must file jointly to utilize this.

    • Strategy Note: High earners should be aware of phase-outs. These benefits begin to reduce at a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and disappear entirely at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: Did you buy a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024? You may be able to deduct up to $10,000 in interest if the loan is secured by the vehicle. This is a win for both itemizers and standard deduction filers. Phase-outs start at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 joint).

  • Higher Standard Deductions & Senior Bonuses: The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Taxpayers aged 65+ get an additional $6,000 "Senior Bonus," regardless of whether they itemize or take the standard deduction. (Senior phase-outs begin at $75,000 single/$150,000 joint).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit is now $2,200 per child. While beneficial, remember that this credit vanishes for higher-income earners (fully available up to $400,000 for joint filers).

  • The SALT Cap Adjustment: A major shift for homeowners in high-tax states—the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has quadrupled from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). Be aware that for MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to shrink back down.

Other Factors Influencing Your 2026 Return

Beyond the new law, a few structural issues are impacting refund sizes. First, the IRS withholding tables did not perfectly keep pace with the mid-year tax cuts. This means many employees had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now. Additionally, inflation adjustments to tax brackets are helping to prevent "bracket creep," keeping your effective tax rate lower despite cost-of-living raises.

Small business owner working, representing diligent taxpayers

Navigating IRS Service Challenges

We need to be transparent about the processing environment. The IRS is currently operating with a workforce reduced by 25% since January 2025, while simultaneously tackling a backlog of prior returns. Consequently, return processing volume is down about 3.1% compared to typical years.

If you are a small business owner or individual taxpayer hesitant to file because of the complexity of the OBBBA, do not delay. At Bryant CPA LLC, we have fully integrated these new rules into our workflow. We are committed to ensuring every eligible deduction—from auto loan interest to the expanded SALT cap—is applied correctly to your situation. Let us handle the complexity so you can focus on your business and family.

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